Dairy products already represent India’s largest single source of dietary animal protein and are forecast to account for the dominant share of absolute growth through 2070. Absolute protein consumption derived from milk is projected to climb from under 5 million tonnes in 2025 to 13.3 million tonnes by 2070, outpacing poultry, commercial egg production, and aquaculture combined. On an individual basis, annual milk protein intake is forecast to rise from 1.63 kilograms in 1990 to 13.1 kilograms by 2070, exceeding the moderate intake benchmarks set by international planetary health nutrition models.

The rapid scaling of dairy intake introduces substantial climate and environmental hurdles under business-as-usual production models. Projections indicate that annual greenhouse gas emissions across the nation’s protein supply chains could reach 1.92 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2070, surpassing estimated climate-aligned thresholds of 0.25 gigatonnes by more than sevenfold. Although consumption of low-carbon legumes and pulses is also forecast to expand significantly, the carbon intensity and methane footprint of dairy farming remain the central factors in the nation’s agricultural emissions trajectory.

Managing this projected growth presents structural complexities due to the fragmented nature of the nation’s primary production base. India currently produces approximately 248 million tonnes of fluid milk annually, yet the vast majority of this output originates from smallholder farm households maintaining two to three milking animals. While national milk production grew by 63.6% over the decade leading to 2024 and bovine productivity improved by 27.4%, the sector continues to face critical constraints, including seasonal feed deficits, uneven veterinary infrastructure, and high methane intensity per animal.