A central pillar of the NDDB’s warning is the stark structural difference between India’s smallholder dairying model and the large-scale, industrial operations seen in major exporting regions such as the European Union, New Zealand, Australia, and the United States. While Western producers benefit from massive landholdings, automated processing, and substantial government subsidies, the average Indian dairy farmer manages a small herd of just two to three animals. Allowing low-tariff or duty-free foreign dairy products into India would create an unlevel playing field that small-scale producers cannot survive.

Shah highlighted that while India remains the world’s largest milk producer by total volume—contributing nearly 24% of global output—its average animal productivity and yield per cow still lag behind international benchmarks. The NDDB is currently leading multi-year initiatives focused on genetic improvement, indigenous breed conservation, digital herd management, and balanced cattle nutrition to enhance productivity. However, until these structural upgrades reach critical mass across rural milk sheds, exposure to international market fluctuations would undermine domestic farmgate stability.

The NDDB chief’s comments come at a crucial time as India negotiates complex trade agreements with several global economic blocs and individual trading partners. Agricultural and farmer organizations across the country have consistently demanded that dairy remain a non-negotiable “red line” in all trade talks, fearing that cheap imports of milk powder, butter, and cheese could collapse local procurement prices set by national and state cooperatives.