The economic implications of this escalating heat stress are staggering. Forecasts predict substantial losses in milk production for India over the medium to long term. A report in The Lancet medical journal estimates that heat stress could reduce milk production by as much as a quarter by 2085, directly impacting the livelihoods of an estimated 89 million smallholder dairy farmers. By the century’s end, this decline could escalate to an alarming 45% of India’s total milk output, representing a catastrophic blow to its agribusiness economy.

In the more immediate future, the northern plains alone could see a loss of 3.4 lakh tonnes of milk production by 2030, translating to roughly ₹15,000 crore (approximately $1.8 billion USD) in losses for the region’s dairy farmers. Regions across the country, from Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh to Bihar, Jharkhand, and Tamil Nadu, are already reporting declines in milk production. Beyond the direct financial hit, farmers face increased costs for cooling equipment and more frequent veterinary check-ups, ultimately driving up milk prices for consumers.

Given that the dairy industry cannot directly influence the trajectory of global warming, the focus must shift to adapting animal husbandry and rearing practices to build cattle resilience. Key mitigation strategies include constructing well-ventilated barns with sprinkler systems to provide indoor relief, ensuring easy access to clean, cool drinking water, and investing in water storage solutions and shaded troughs. These practical measures are crucial for protecting herd health and maintaining milk yields amidst hotter summers.