Modern Dairy's loss widens due to China's saturated milk market, but cost-saving strategies and demand rebound offer hope.
China's Dairy Glut Modern Dairy's Losses Deepen

Oversupply and price drops hit major producer, but strategic cost cuts offer a glimmer of hope amidst market saturation.

Modern Dairy, a prominent player in China’s dairy sector, is facing a widening net loss, projected to be between 800 million yuan ($111 million) and 1 billion yuan for the first half of the current year. This significant downturn is notably larger than the 207 million yuan loss recorded in the previous year. For the international dairy community and agribusiness analysts, this stark financial performance highlights the severe challenges posed by oversupply in the crucial Chinese raw milk market.

The company explicitly attributes this deepening loss to the persistent oversupply of raw milk within China, a condition that has kept market prices suppressed. Consequently, Modern Dairy has experienced a substantial drop in its average selling prices, directly impacting its revenue and profitability. This situation underscores the delicate balance between supply and demand, and its direct influence on dairy economics in major consuming nations.

Despite the widening net loss, Modern Dairy reports a degree of operational stability, with its cash EBITDA expected to remain steady at approximately 1.5 billion yuan, consistent with the previous year’s figures. This indicates that while the top-line revenue is under pressure, the company’s core operations are generating consistent cash flow, suggesting a degree of underlying resilience amidst challenging market conditions.

In response to the market headwinds, Modern Dairy has proactively implemented aggressive cost-saving strategies. The company anticipates a reduction in the cost of sales per kilogram of milk by more than 0.22 yuan compared to the previous year. Furthermore, they project a 10% year-on-year growth in raw milk sales volume, a critical factor expected to help mitigate the adverse effects of lower market prices. These measures reflect a focused effort on operational efficiency.

Modern Dairy expresses optimism that their cost-reduction and efficiency-boosting initiatives are yielding positive results. Looking ahead, the company believes that as dairy demand gradually rebounds in China, raw milk prices are likely to stabilize and eventually recover. This anticipated market correction is crucial for improving the company’s profitability and navigating the complexities of a saturated yet evolving Chinese dairy market.

Source: The Bamboo Works: Modern Dairy’s Loss Widens on Saturated China Market

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