Global dairy and nutrition manufacturers, including major international players such as Nestlé, Danone and New Zealand’s A2 Milk, saw their share prices wobble after the birth data release, reflecting investor worries about shrinking addressable markets. Chinese dairy firms, with a stronger focus on broader dairy consumption instead of just infant nutrition, were less affected by the demographic news.

Despite the falling birth count, premium and super-premium infant formula segments in China have continued to show resilience. Analysts point to the strong willingness among affluent Chinese parents to pay higher prices for trusted foreign brands, which command large shares of the infant formula market compared with commoditised categories such as cereal or diapers. This pricing power has helped some foreign brands maintain or even grow their position despite declining birth numbers.

Market dynamics also reveal import volumes rebounding from pandemic lows, with overseas milk formula shipments climbing back toward pre-pandemic levels by 2025, even as overall birth counts slide. Chinese consumers’ preference for established international formula brands — partly rooted in past food safety scandals and trust issues with domestic production — continues to underpin demand for imports.