A report co-authored by a Canadian expert on food suggests fundamental changes to supply management are needed to save the dairy industry.

“If supply management is not fundamentally changed Canada could see half of our current dairy farms disappear by 2030,” says the report by Sylvain Charlebois of Dalhousie University and Simon Somogyi of the University of Guelph.

Without the changes, Canada’s nearly 11,000 dairy farms will shrink to 5,500 in 10 years, argues the report.

Charlebois, who specializes in the food industry, says COVID-19 showed that the current supply management can’t avoid waste of raw milk.

Besides the industry is adjusting to fragmented demand. Saputo has closed two cheese processing plants and Starbucks is reducing the amount of dairy it serves as part of the corporate sustainability plan.

Worldwide sales of milk have been declining by one per cent a year.

Surveys indicate consumers, especially younger generations, have mixed feelings about whether the dairy industry is good for the environment.

The plan suggests four steps to adapt the industry and make it more competitive.

Government needs to create a voluntary program for dairy farmers to leave the industry.

The Canadian Dairy Commission, which manages dairy supply, needs fundamental changes.

Interprovincial trade barriers need to be removed

And a 20-year program is needed to reduce tariffs, develop an exporting strategy, develop a Canadian brand and act as an incentive for innovation.

Charlebois believes the dairy sector is doing too much by getting $1.8 billon subsidies over eight years, maintaining the quota production system but not doing enough for processing and restaurant sectors.