Several key agricultural categories demonstrated robust growth. Meat, dairy and poultry products jumped notably by 30.87% to USD 584.5 million, primarily driven by steady demand from key markets in West Asia and parts of Southeast Asia. Furthermore, marine products, which constitute India’s most valuable agri-linked export category, grew 11.08% to USD 899 million, strongly supported by firm shrimp demand in the US and stable pricing across the EU and East Asia. Other notable performers included cashew shipments, which soared by 126.85%, and coffee, which rose by 10.91%.

Despite these strong monthly gains, a closer look at the data reveals a complicated and fragile underlying trend. Analysts warn that the October surge is narrow and heavily concentrated in a few specific commodities, attributing much of the growth to favorable global price behavior rather than structural improvements in policy or competitiveness. An agricultural-exporter lobby representative cautioned that the numbers reflect “selective resilience—not a broad-based revival,” indicating that the majority of India’s trade cycle, typically driven by engineering goods and petroleum, remains under pressure.

The buoyancy in agricultural exports was insufficient to offset a deepening national trade imbalance. India’s overall trade deficit widened sharply to USD 21.8 billion in October, a near-doubling from the USD 9.05 billion recorded the previous year. This severe imbalance was caused by a nearly 15% rise in imports, propelled by steep inflows of gold, electronics, machinery, and non-ferrous metals. Trade economists stressed that agricultural exports, while crucial, “cannot compensate for the drag in high-value industrial categories.”